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While the field of battle will depend on the cause of conflict, we can expect that the crucial theaters of war will be the East and South China Seas. Chinese military expert and former Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong pointed out that since two US aircraft carrier battle groups are conducting exercises in the South China Sea at the same time, we could deduce that the United States has considered the South China Sea as a medium-threat zone and may launch a local war at any time. China is building military installations to cement its claims to most of the South China Sea and to back those claims if need be. US Secretary of State Pompeo declared that China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea are “completely illegal”. Because the Trump administration, like its predecessor, rightly opposes this development, the chance of a military confrontation or incident is growing. The Air Force will also have access to B-21 Raider stealth bombers, as well as its legacy bomber fleets. Just as before World War 1 and World War 2 we saw a period of ‘phony war’, we are now witnessing China’s initiation of a phony war that the U.S. should fear. The seeds of conflict between China and all of these countries have already been planted, even if they never bloom. In fact, those chances total approximately 100%. If its' poor people, you get things like the … But it behooves planners in both countries to take seriously the possibility that conflict might ensue. China will field more J-10s and J-11s, bringing its fleet up to par with America’s legacy force of F-15s, F-16s, and F/A-18s. Great power war would produce economic chaos and suffering the world over. Over the weekend, I asked him for an update — specifically whether the danger of the two going to war seems to have risen. Famous military expert Zhang Zhaozhong: chances of military frictions or war between China and America increase by … This does not mean that China will have an advantage, but, compared to the status quo, time favors the PRC. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States appear ready to plunge off the precipice of a trade war. A useful analogy here is with the robustness of the industrial systems of the earlier 20th century; while German industry suffered heavily under Western bombing, it did not collapse like many expected, largely because a sophisticated system has multiple internal redundancies that cannot easily be undermined. As China’s relative power increases, the United States may find that small disputes can have big consequences. A blockade probably isn’t the answer, either. Neither the PRC nor the United States will go to war over a trivial event. The core of the conflict remains the same. Chances of war between China and USA increase by 90%: Zhang Zhaozhong, Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Google+ (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window), Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window). The construction of additional pipelines with Russia, in addition to the development of alternative sources of energy, will likely give the PRC enough slack to ride out any conflict with the United States. A war between the United States and China over Taiwan would be a cataclysm. "Yes," he responded. Washington And The World. A Chinese diplomat accuses Australia of being “fragile” and “treacherous”. NOSTRADAMUS is said to have predicted in the 16th-century the rise of Adolf Hitler, global war and even the end of the world. But war between China and Japan could also have catastrophic consequences. What Are the Chances of the U.S. and China Going to War? Hubble telescope gives closer look at rare asteroid worth $10,000,000,000,000,000,000. Then again, it’s worth thinking about how the balance of capabilities between the two countries could shift over time, and how windows of opportunity for either might emerge. Victory will depend on which side can destroy the primary fielded forces of the enemy, either through decisive assault or through attrition. Socially, economically, and militarily, China and the United States are both deeply wired, and deeply dependent upon cyber-connectivity. World War 3 MAPPED: The SIX places where WW3 could break out in 2020 WORLD WAR 3 fears were ignited across the globe just a few days into 2020 and now they have been sparked again. In the past two months, the U.S. military has frequently engaged in military provocations against China, not only sending warships and planes to reconnaissance along the coast of China, but breaking into 12 nautical miles of China’s South China Sea islands and reefs. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! But things could change over the next decade. That has been the recent hot question in China circles, spurred by a deluge of books that handicap the chances. We can imagine a significant threat to a U.S. ally, whether it be Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), India, Taiwan, or perhaps the Philippines. On the other hand, it is increasingly hard to imagine a scenario in which the United States could fatally undermine the PRC, granting that defeat might cause a lasting political crisis. (Reuters)History tells us that when a rising power meets a waning power, it leads to war. Will Russia Really Build 24 Hypersonic Nuclear Missiles by 2020. Let's say you are an historian in the future (year 2025) writing about the great-power nuclear war of 2017. Without a firm grip on the specific casus belli associated with the War of 2030, it is difficult to assess how far each side might be willing to push. Although the collapse of bilateral trade would damage both economies, virtually all of China's trade, being seaborne, would be disrupted by a war in the western Pacific. What signs did we all miss? Reasoning: History background - Civil Wars are, 90% of the time, started when some group used to having economic power, influence, or freedom, suddenly has it taken away. By contrast, the less sophisticated Japanese economy suffered much more significant damage from blockade and bombing. No One Saw It Coming: How Russia Went to War Against China in 2020. China will also deploy submarines and surface ships in large numbers- without the need to spread naval forces around the world. U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle need to start addressing the danger. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. The J-20 should be available in numbers, along perhaps with the J-31, if the PLA decides to buy. China could very well have four aircraft carriers by 2030, most likely two Liaoning-type STOBAR carriers and two conventional CATOBAR carriers. This is the second time the US military’s dual aircraft carriers have conducted a military exercise in the South China Sea in just half a month. The Pentagon is planning for war with China and Russia — can it handle both? For almost four decades, many analysts suggested that war between the United States and the Soviet Union was inevitable. With respect to aircraft, the United States Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps will all field F-35s in significant numbers. And most awkward of all, China and Taiwan have been battling over who runs their government in what is essentially an ongoing civil war. These drones will depend on access to vast systems of reconnaissance and communication, systems that both sides will attempt to disrupt from the opening hours of the conflict. 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